Bitcoin · worst-case entry
What if you'd bought Bitcoin at the exact 2017 top?
$100/month starting 2017-12-16 — the single worst entry day of the era, straight into a 83% crash. Real adjusted closes, T+1 execution, versus a lump sum on the same day.
If you invested $100/month in Bitcoin from 2017-12 to 2026-07...
$40,938
grown from $10,300 invested over 8.5 years. +$30,638 (+297.46%)
DCA from the top vs. lump sum at the top
Same total money — $10,300 — deployed two ways from 2017-12-16: $100 every month, or everything on the peak day.
| Strategy | Final value | Total return | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCA from the top ahead | $40,938 | +297.5% | 31.1%/yr IRR |
| Lump sum at the top | $33,511 | +225.3% | 14.7%/yr CAGR |
Growth over time (DCA)
Dashed: cumulative invested · Solid: portfolio value
Investment schedule
- Per investment
- $100.00
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Window
- 2017-12-16 → 2026-07-17
- Duration
- 8.5 years
- Number of investments
- 103× $100.00 each
Results
- Total invested
- $10,300103 × $100.00
- Final value
- $40,938as of 2026-07-17
- Total return
- +$30,638+297.46%
- Annualized (IRR)
- 31.15%/yrcompounded over 8.5 years
Buying the 2017 crypto top: what actually happened
December 16, 2017 was the peak of Bitcoin's first mainstream mania: a close of $19,497 after a year of near-vertical gains. What followed was an 83% collapse to about $3,200 exactly one year later, and a bear market so long the price didn't close above the 2017 top until November 2020 — almost three years underwater.
This is the scenario Bitcoin skeptics cite most. And yet the monthly buyer who started at the worst possible day of 2017 spent the whole bear market accumulating coins at $3,000–$10,000. By the time the price recovered, most of their stack had been bought far below the top.
Cite this stat
A $100/month DCA into Bitcoin started at the December 2017 mania top (2017-12-16) would be worth $40,938 on $10,300 invested (+297.5%) as of July 2026, while the same total invested as a lump sum at the peak would be worth $33,511 (+225.3%).
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Frequently asked questions
- What happened after the December 2017 mania top?
- Bitcoin fell 83% from the 2017-12-16 peak, bottoming on 2018-12-15. The price first closed back above the peak on 2020-11-30.
- Did DCA beat a lump sum bought at the 2017 top?
- As of July 2026: DCA from the top is worth $40,938 versus $33,511 for a lump sum of the same total money invested on the peak day. DCA is ahead — the crash purchases lowered the average cost far below the peak.
- How is this calculated?
- Yahoo Finance adjusted closes (dividends reinvested, splits applied). Monthly buys on the same day-of-month as the peak date; buys landing on non-trading days execute at the next trading day's close (T+1). Annualized return is IRR computed on the actual cashflow schedule. No fees or taxes modeled.
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Test a different amount, start date, or frequency against the same Bitcoin dataset.