NASDAQ 100 · worst-case entry
What if you'd bought NASDAQ 100 at the exact 2000 top?
$500/month starting 2000-03-27 — the single worst entry day of the era, straight into a 83% crash. Real adjusted closes, T+1 execution, versus a lump sum on the same day.
If you invested $500/month in NASDAQ 100 from 2000-03 to 2026-07...
$1,664,017
grown from $158,000 invested over 26.3 years. +$1,506,017 (+953.18%)
DCA from the top vs. lump sum at the top
Same total money — $158,000 — deployed two ways from 2000-03-27: $500 every month, or everything on the peak day.
| Strategy | Final value | Total return | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCA from the top ahead | $1,664,017 | +953.2% | 15.0%/yr IRR |
| Lump sum at the top | $974,779 | +516.9% | 7.2%/yr CAGR |
Growth over time (DCA)
Dashed: cumulative invested · Solid: portfolio value
Investment schedule
- Per investment
- $500.00
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Window
- 2000-03-27 → 2026-07-16
- Duration
- 26.3 years
- Number of investments
- 316× $500.00 each
Results
- Total invested
- $158,000316 × $500.00
- Final value
- $1,664,017as of 2026-07-16
- Total return
- +$1,506,017+953.18%
- Annualized (IRR)
- 15.02%/yrcompounded over 26.3 years
Buying the dot-com top: what actually happened
The NASDAQ 100 peaked on March 27, 2000 at the height of the dot-com bubble, then fell 83% over the next two and a half years. The recovery was brutally slow: the index didn't close above its 2000 peak until November 2015 — more than fifteen years underwater.
This is the strongest case for dollar-cost averaging in modern US market history. A lump sum at the top needed a decade and a half just to break even. The monthly buyer, meanwhile, spent 2001–2012 accumulating at a fraction of bubble prices — and ends up dramatically ahead, roughly 70% richer than the lump-sum buyer on the same total money.
Cite this stat
A $500/month DCA into NASDAQ 100 started at the March 2000 dot-com peak (2000-03-27) would be worth $1,664,017 on $158,000 invested (+953.2%) as of July 2026, while the same total invested as a lump sum at the peak would be worth $974,779 (+516.9%).
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Frequently asked questions
- What happened after the March 2000 dot-com peak?
- NASDAQ 100 fell 83% from the 2000-03-27 peak, bottoming on 2002-10-07. The price first closed back above the peak on 2015-11-03.
- Did DCA beat a lump sum bought at the 2000 top?
- As of July 2026: DCA from the top is worth $1,664,017 versus $974,779 for a lump sum of the same total money invested on the peak day. DCA is ahead — the crash purchases lowered the average cost far below the peak.
- How is this calculated?
- Yahoo Finance adjusted closes (dividends reinvested, splits applied). Monthly buys on the same day-of-month as the peak date; buys landing on non-trading days execute at the next trading day's close (T+1). Annualized return is IRR computed on the actual cashflow schedule. No fees or taxes modeled.
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