Gold · worst-case entry
What if you'd bought Gold at the exact 2011 top?
$500/month starting 2011-08-22 — the single worst entry day of the era, straight into a 46% crash. Real adjusted closes, T+1 execution, versus a lump sum on the same day.
If you invested $500/month in Gold from 2011-08 to 2026-09...
$237,014
grown from $90,500 invested over 15.0 years. +$146,514 (+161.89%)
DCA from the top vs. lump sum at the top
Same total money — $90,500 — deployed two ways from 2011-08-22: $500 every month, or everything on the peak day.
| Strategy | Final value | Total return | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCA from the top ahead | $237,014 | +161.9% | 11.9%/yr IRR |
| Lump sum at the top | $195,973 | +116.5% | 5.3%/yr CAGR |
Growth over time (DCA)
Dashed: cumulative invested · Solid: portfolio value
Investment schedule
- Per investment
- $500.00
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Window
- 2011-08-22 → 2026-09-08
- Duration
- 15.0 years
- Number of investments
- 181× $500.00 each
Results
- Total invested
- $90,500181 × $500.00
- Final value
- $237,014as of 2026-09-08
- Total return
- +$146,514+161.89%
- Annualized (IRR)
- 11.9%/yrcompounded over 15.0 years
Buying the 2011 gold top: what actually happened
Gold peaked in August 2011 amid the US debt-ceiling crisis and eurozone panic, with GLD closing at $184.59. It then ground down 46% over four long years, bottoming in December 2015, and didn't reclaim the 2011 high until July 2020 — nine years underwater.
Gold pays no dividend, so a lump-sum buyer at the top had nothing to show for nearly a decade. The monthly buyer kept adding through the 2013–2019 doldrums at $100–$130 per GLD share; those cheap ounces are the entire margin between the two results below.
Cite this stat
A $500/month DCA into Gold started at the August 2011 gold peak (2011-08-22) would be worth $237,014 on $90,500 invested (+161.9%) as of September 2026, while the same total invested as a lump sum at the peak would be worth $195,973 (+116.5%).
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Frequently asked questions
- What happened after the August 2011 gold peak?
- Gold fell 46% from the 2011-08-22 peak, bottoming on 2015-12-17. The price first closed back above the peak on 2020-07-29.
- Did DCA beat a lump sum bought at the 2011 top?
- As of September 2026: DCA from the top is worth $237,014 versus $195,973 for a lump sum of the same total money invested on the peak day. DCA is ahead — the crash purchases lowered the average cost far below the peak.
- How is this calculated?
- Yahoo Finance adjusted closes (dividends reinvested, splits applied). Monthly buys on the same day-of-month as the peak date; buys landing on non-trading days execute at the next trading day's close (T+1). Annualized return is IRR computed on the actual cashflow schedule. No fees or taxes modeled.
Change the numbers
Test a different amount, start date, or frequency against the same Gold dataset.