S&P 500 · worst-case entry
What if you'd bought S&P 500 at the exact 2007 top?
$500/month starting 2007-10-09 — the single worst entry day of the era, straight into a 57% crash. Real adjusted closes, T+1 execution, versus a lump sum on the same day.
If you invested $500/month in S&P 500 from 2007-10 to 2026-07...
$411,942
grown from $112,500 invested over 18.7 years. +$299,442 (+266.17%)
DCA from the top vs. lump sum at the top
Same total money — $112,500 — deployed two ways from 2007-10-09: $500 every month, or everything on the peak day.
| Strategy | Final value | Total return | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCA from the top | $411,942 | +266.2% | 12.5%/yr IRR |
| Lump sum at the top ahead | $541,513 | +381.3% | 8.7%/yr CAGR |
Growth over time (DCA)
Dashed: cumulative invested · Solid: portfolio value
Investment schedule
- Per investment
- $500.00
- Frequency
- Monthly
- Window
- 2007-10-09 → 2026-07-16
- Duration
- 18.7 years
- Number of investments
- 225× $500.00 each
Results
- Total invested
- $112,500225 × $500.00
- Final value
- $411,942as of 2026-07-16
- Total return
- +$299,442+266.17%
- Annualized (IRR)
- 12.49%/yrcompounded over 18.7 years
Buying the 2007 pre-GFC top: what actually happened
The S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007, months before the global financial crisis unfolded. By March 9, 2009 the index had lost 57% — the deepest US equity drawdown since the Great Depression. On a total-return basis it took until March 2013 to close above the 2007 peak.
Buying the 2007 top is the classic worst-case for a US stock investor. The DCA buyer's first purchases were deeply underwater for years, but every automatic buy through 2008–2012 landed at crisis prices. Note the honest result below: over the very long recovery-plus-bull-market that followed, a lump sum at the top still ended ahead of DCA — being fully invested for 18+ years beat averaging in, even from the worst starting day. What DCA bought was a radically smaller drawdown on the money at risk early on.
Cite this stat
A $500/month DCA into S&P 500 started at the October 2007 pre-crisis peak (2007-10-09) would be worth $411,942 on $112,500 invested (+266.2%) as of July 2026, while the same total invested as a lump sum at the peak would be worth $541,513 (+381.3%).
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Frequently asked questions
- What happened after the October 2007 pre-crisis peak?
- S&P 500 fell 57% from the 2007-10-09 peak, bottoming on 2009-03-09. The price first closed back above the peak on 2013-03-28.
- Did DCA beat a lump sum bought at the 2007 top?
- As of July 2026: DCA from the top is worth $411,942 versus $541,513 for a lump sum of the same total money invested on the peak day. The lump sum is ahead — a long enough bull market after recovery rewarded being fully invested early, though it endured a much deeper drawdown along the way.
- How is this calculated?
- Yahoo Finance adjusted closes (dividends reinvested, splits applied). Monthly buys on the same day-of-month as the peak date; buys landing on non-trading days execute at the next trading day's close (T+1). Annualized return is IRR computed on the actual cashflow schedule. No fees or taxes modeled.
Change the numbers
Test a different amount, start date, or frequency against the same S&P 500 dataset.